I recently read a news item which disclosed that Microsoft plans to incorporate anti-piracy technology into the yet to be released Vista OS. This set me thinking. What does this hold for GNU/Linux? Put differently, could this move by Microsoft have any positive effect on the popularity of GNU/Linux ?
Before we jump into talking about Linux and what it stands to gain from this, let us look at the present scenario as far as Windows use is concerned. It is a well known fact that around 70 % (I suspect even more) of the Windows OS that is run on PCs worldwide is pirated. Which means only 30 % of the people who use Windows actually pay for it and use a genuine licenced copy. This trend is more prevalent in third world countries where there is a mind set among the majority of computer literate people which equates (any) software with freeness as in free beer.
It is so easy to walk into a shop selling computers and request them for a copy of any of the Windows OS and you can get it for the cost of a blank CD - around US $1. Of course with Windows XP it is not possible to install the service pack 2 and above if it is a pirated copy - but then do people really bother to install the service packs if the only alternative is to shell out money and buy a genuine licence ? I really doubt it.
For example, in India, software piracy is so rampant and ingrained in the society that the top branded computer manufacturers are forced to sell computers without an OS or with Linux pre-installed to compete with the assembled PC sector. The various PC ads in newspapers are proof enough for this.
It is so easy to walk into a shop selling computers and request them for a copy of any of the Windows OS and you can get it for the cost of a blank CD - around US $1. Of course with Windows XP it is not possible to install the service pack 2 and above if it is a pirated copy - but then do people really bother to install the service packs if the only alternative is to shell out money and buy a genuine licence ? I really doubt it.
For example, in India, software piracy is so rampant and ingrained in the society that the top branded computer manufacturers are forced to sell computers without an OS or with Linux pre-installed to compete with the assembled PC sector. The various PC ads in newspapers are proof enough for this.
Now when Microsoft finally release Vista with inbuilt anti-piracy technology, if what has been disclosed is true and there is no option other than to register the copy at Microsoft website in order to fully enable it, then it will open up the flood gates for alternatives to Vista. For one, people - ie those who shy away from shelling money for the software - will genuinely take interest in installing and using GNU/Linux.Assembled PC manufacturers (who are a sizable group) will go the extra length in convincing their potential customers to buy a PC pre-installed with Linux and will hopefully impress upon them the good aspects of GNU/Linux - after all they also have to look at their bottom lines and at the same time be able to provide a PC at a more competitive rate than the branded PCs. And once these people start using GNU/Linux, they will realise how much value this remarkable OS and the applications installed in it can provide when compared to a similar proprietary solution which costs bundles of money.
Of course, this may not in any way cause a dent in the Microsoft's kitty; if anything, this move by Microsoft will only increase its revenue. But then a reduction in piracy will be a win-win situation for all parties concerned as for Microsoft, it can be happy that all who use its OS is actually buying a genuine licenced copy and for Free software and GNU/Linux in particular, it is still a win because it will be able to attract those sizable group of people who are not willing to shell out money for software or OS.
21 comments:
An interesting thought but I don't think I agree ... people will just find a way to hack Vista and make pirated copies work. I doubt that the intruduction of Vista will make 'normal' computer users go and find out about Linux.
there might be some people not willing to pay, but most people outside US, and Europe can't really afford to pay $200 for a software....in some country that a what they might if they lucky make a month.
As someone who manages 1000+ workstations, The idea of having to police licensing compliance on behalf of a vendor, for no compensation, leaves me cold. The supposed improved manageability gains of vista go right out teh window. And I wonder how much these cheeseballs are gonna charge for a system to manage license compliance, and make it easy to boot?
I'll be shocked if they don't charge for teh priviledge.
You are right. The WGA is a pain in the ass for a lot of people living in the third world. They are mad that Microsoft is telling them that they copy of Windows is pirated. I think Microsoft will hurt themselves really bad by following this strategy, and hopefully, Linux will gain a lot of steam from this. There was a brazilian ministry who said that Microsoft was using the same drug dealer tecniques to spread their software usage. I don't understand how they feel this is better for them, cause they make money anyway with government and big enterprises in the third world countries.
With the fact that VISTA will require new hardware, alot of programs won't work, the interface is entirely different and all the popups, this will cause at least 5% market shift at a bare min9imum.
Microsoft hasn't made this many bold moves in a long time and this has proven to be their Titanic; they have put all the money onm this latest revision, and had to recode it twice. And still testers and developers say it still isn't ready and that it is being rushed.
And as far as security is concerned, critical exploits have already been found and are still being found.
I think in America and Europe, Mac will be a bigger winner but Linux will win in the long term due to larger desktop market share.
Let me get this straight. The folks that are pirating windows- still won't pay for windows. This hurts M$ how? The only way this would harm windows is if the corporate world starts not using vista becaue of it.
It really amazes me that for every stupid or little less stupid thing M$ does there's at least one person who will say "It really makes me think how can this affect Linux..."
Let's be honest and say that Linux on desktop is still few years behind (between win 3.11 and win95) and all of us Linux desktop users are like beta-testers.
People who use Windows will unlikely switch to Linux (at this moment in time), no matter what stupid-restrictive-anti-this-and-that policy/technology M$ implements into their products.
I think MS missed the boat on this. If they had thought ahead and did this when XP came out, GNU/Linux wouldn't have been a threat. People would have just had to pay.
Since they waited, their leverage has weakened from its peak and instead of solidifying their userbase, they have encouraged them to seek out alternatives.
I know most people will still buy computers with Windows and I'll still be supporting them, but when it comes to correcting a pirated or virus-infested system, it'll be a lot easier to convice people to move to Linux because WGA and Vista could be just a taste of things to come.
"Let's be honest and say that Linux on desktop is still few years behind (between win 3.11 and win95) and all of us Linux desktop users are like beta-testers."
In what way is Linux on the Desktop behind Windows. In my opinion the only thing it is behind on is playing games. And I have a really hard time making viruses work!
"Let's be honest and say that Linux on desktop is still few years behind (between win 3.11 and win95) and all of us Linux desktop users are like beta-testers." -- anonymous
I've got news for you ..... it's not 1997 anymore. The Linux desktop overtook windows when KDE3 was released. KOffice is 64-bit clean (no former-closed-source legacy code like some office suites we could mention).
What distro are you running? Maybe it's time you switched.
Did anyone consider a more likely consequence of the higher hardware requirements of Vista, the anti-piracy mechanisms, and the price tag? Namely that it will just convince people to keep their pirated version of XP?
I alternate between FreeBSD 6 and XP Pro, and I'm quite satisfied with both. I use them for two separate lists of tasks, and they do their specific functions successfully so I see no reason to change (i.e. download the latest versions for free). When XP came out it made sense to switch because most people were using 98 or ME, which are two of the worst operating systems ever built in the history of computing. But at work we had 2000 and it did the job with few problems so nobody bothered to switch from Win2K to XP Pro (and still haven't) because of the cost. XP likewise isn't the piece of garbage that 98 or ME were, so frankly I don't see too many people buying all new computers just so they can have a 3-dimensional view of their desktop and a few other silly "features."
They'll just keep XP until it goes unsupported (which could be years from now, look at how long it took to officially revoke support for 98) and in the meantime Microsoft will realise how stupid they were and offer some "trimmed-down" version of Vista to try and get people to "see the future." Nobody is going to switch their home PC to Linux if they have the choice between XP, Vista, or it. They'll just keep what they've already got and what they're already comfortable with using.
This will be a win for linux in that Microsoft, while gaining more licensed users, will lose overall marketshare vs the previous base of MS users (pirated + genuine). A higher % of market share will drive GNU/Linux / FOSS growth and increase interest among companies which will be an overall benefit to FOSS and an overall loss to MS.
This will be a win for linux in that Microsoft, while gaining more licensed users, will lose overall marketshare vs the previous base of MS users (pirated + genuine). A higher % of market share will drive GNU/Linux / FOSS growth and increase interest among companies which will be an overall benefit to FOSS and an overall loss to MS.
> At 10/06/2006 12:39:18 PM, Anonymous said...
Let me get this straight. The folks that are pirating windows- still won't pay for windows. This hurts M$ how? The only way this would harm windows is if the corporate world starts not using vista becaue of it.
Less overall percentage of people using Windows -> less motivation for developers to write Windows software -> see 1.
Just because somebody doesn't pay for his OS, it doesn't mean that he or she won't pay for applications and games.
Just look at WoW - thousands of people pay for it but didn't for their OS.
And, well, if Blizzard sees that users just keep their old OS or switch to Mac/Linux...
Let's be honest and say that Linux on desktop is still few years behind (between win 3.11 and win95) and all of us Linux desktop users are like beta-testers.
...and how did you come to this conclusion?
It's my personal experience that a Windows XP desktop system will never ever be as productive as a nicely configured Linux/BSD system. (note the "nicely configured" - I don't think a Windows XP desktop out of the box is comparable with a Linux desktop, 'cause there is no "out of the box" there)
Huh? I already run XP with SP2 installed. It was easy to find a hack on the net, and all updates work perfectly. I am guessing that it will take less than 24 hours after the release of Vista for it to be become "free as beer" for those who want it. I have not paid for an OS since ME. If Microsoft really made a genuinely good, secure product at a reasonable price, then I might consider buying it. As it is, the only reason I run XP is for the compatibility with the vast amount of machines/software out there. As it is, my choice of OS at the moment happens to be Suse 10.1. If I just can't open a document in OpenOffice, then I am forced to boot into Windows. (sigh)
hi every body its true.i am from india.but the data varies , i shall get xp cds at the cost of a blank cd which is not $1 but 5 to 6 cds for $1, that means $1 for 5 to 6 Xp SP2 integrated os cds.also remember one thing whatever technology MS brings it will be a failure and people here will break through as they are 15% total software exporter of the worlds software
he only reason windows is the majority on the desktop is because it comes pre-installed...which will continue while microsoft keeps bribing the OEM shop-keepers.
Heh and to be able to continue to afford to bribe those OEM shop-keepers, they will have to keep rolling down the imperialistic invasion monopoly pathway....
eventually they'll reach the ned of their resource bowl...
Anyone ever played command and conquoer?
Notice what happens when you gain the strategic upper hand and have access to 70-80% of the resources on the map? eventually you find that you have farmed it all....only to be left with a huge trigger happy army.
Last man standing army is going to get us through the next ice-age.....yeah right..only in disney land.
Despite the threats posed by Vista, computer sellers and proponents of Linux would have to go out and sell the alternative OS to the world.
One best way would be to plonk a system with an easy-to-use Linux flavor like Ubuntu in front of the user and get him/her to surf/email, etc. That would surely break down resistance to Linux.
I switched to Ubuntu Dapper in June and don't intend returning to Windows ever. I am on the look out for better/easier alternatives to Ubuntu though. Any suggestions?
-Shiv Kumar
Dear Mumbaijurno,
Try SimplyMEPIS 6.0 Works much like kubuntu, but with full support for multimedia, digital cameras and softmodems pre-installed. Works beautifully out-of-the-box. Free single CD download from www.mepis.org
As someone else said, the most two things that hook people to Windows is a) its preinstalled and b) it has all the games.
So if we realy want to chomp away a huge market share from MICROS~1 we need to chop one of these collums down.
I would prefer if we could chop down the games collum, but for that we all need to bugger the big people, like Activision and EA.
If they see the benefits of an open source OS and release their games for it, then we have won.
Next game by me will work on both, BTW.
My comments are located here.
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